Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 2.031140 2.133667 2.243091 2.369402 2.512281 2.670259 2.860125
2025-07-06 1.881223 2.008177 2.148728 2.317933 2.519081 2.754704 3.058397
2025-07-13 1.820778 1.969196 2.138575 2.350013 2.612911 2.938350 3.389040
2025-07-20 1.790344 1.958774 2.156313 2.411378 2.742689 3.176777 3.827710
2025-07-27 1.738725 1.917819 2.131996 2.415492 2.796213 3.318253 4.156568
2025-08-03 1.694469 1.881970 2.109989 2.418473 2.845473 3.456738 4.508756
2025-08-10 1.629074 1.816201 2.045879 2.360440 2.803480 3.454121 4.623544
2025-08-17 1.587420 1.777792 2.014064 2.342530 2.815240 3.532471 4.898693
2025-08-24 1.551587 1.744868 1.987217 2.328865 2.830750 3.617026 5.207885
2025-08-31 1.521286 1.717527 1.966005 2.321056 2.853311 3.714779 5.575014
2025-09-07 1.501789 1.703053 1.960734 2.334712 2.908871 3.875738 6.148840
2025-09-14 1.452674 1.648510 1.899683 2.265124 2.828348 3.783046 6.060901
2025-09-21 1.430303 1.629359 1.887143 2.267407 2.866308 3.920321 6.668180
2025-09-28 1.392092 1.588166 1.843037 2.221026 2.821453 3.894322 6.799865
2025-10-05 1.382758 1.584653 1.850118 2.250447 2.903798 4.130508 7.931605
2025-10-12 1.382713 1.593277 1.874045 2.306319 3.036625 4.502559 10.131470
2025-10-19 1.365917 1.578697 1.864644 2.310100 3.077965 4.683578 11.898279
2025-10-26 1.349783 1.564452 1.855056 2.312826 3.117356 4.869826 14.355471
2025-11-02 1.317615 1.527516 1.811833 2.260105 3.049199 4.773950 14.272575
2025-11-09 1.297866 1.507149 1.791871 2.243806 3.048861 4.854764 16.314750
2025-11-16 1.280205 1.489207 1.774830 2.231362 3.054806 4.954238 19.374604
2025-11-23 1.264920 1.474158 1.761493 2.224246 3.070423 5.084802 24.773699
2025-11-30 1.255980 1.467606 1.760242 2.236690 3.125550 5.345295 44.536370